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Rebalancing ตอบโจทย์คนแบบไหน ใช่คุณหรือเปล่า

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09/12/2021

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สนับสนุนบทความดีๆ โดย @ma5bot มหาบอท X Meawbin Investor ซอฟแวร์อัจฉริยะ ช่วยเทรดคริปโต 24 ชม.

MA5BOT มหาบอท ใช้ชีวิตให้มีกำไร 

กลยุทธ์ “การปรับสมดุลพอร์ต” หรือ Rebalancing ไม่ได้ถูกออกแบบมาเพื่อเก็งกำไรระยะสั้น แต่เป็นกลยุทธ์ในระยะยาวที่สามารถสร้างผลตอบแทนแบบ Passive Income และ Capital Gain ไปได้พร้อมกัน
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ผมขอยกตัวอย่างเปรียบเทียบกับการลงทุนซื้อคอนโด อสังหาฯ เพื่อปล่อยเช่า รายได้ของคุณจะเกิดขึ้น 2 ช่องทางคือ

Cash Flow หรือค่าเช่า จากการปล่อยให้เช่า อสังหาฯ

Capital Gain จากการขาย อสังหาฯ นั้นๆ (จะไม่ได้จนกว่าจะขาย)

Rebalancing คือการ แบ่งสัดส่วนเงินเพื่อลงทุนในสินทรัพย์รายได้ของคุณจะเกิดขึ้น 2 ช่องทางเช่นกัน

Cash Flow จากกระบวนการ ซื้อถูก ขายแพง นับครั้งไม่ถ้วน

Capital Gain จากการเติบโตของราคาสินทรัพย์ที่เลือกลงทุน

เรื่องของการคำนวณผลกำไรจากการ Rebalance ผมอยากให้คุณจินตนาการถึงการลงทุนทำธุรกิจเปิดร้านขายของ หรือการลงทุนคอนโดเพื่อปล่อยเช่า ซึ่งการลงทุนนั้นจะเกิดเป็นผลกำไรขึ้นทั้งหมด 2 ส่วนคือ

1. Capital Gain :

เกิดจากมูลค่าที่เพิ่มสูงขึ้นจาดเงินลงทุน หรือการที่ราคา Asset เพิ่มสูงขึ้น กำไรส่วนนี้ก็ตรงไปตรงมาเช่น คุณลงทุน 10,000 เหรียญ เมื่อเวลาผ่านไป 1 เดือน มูลค่าพอร์ตการลงทุนของคุณเพิ่มเป็น 20,000 เหรียญ แปลว่าคุณมีกำไร 10,000 เหรียญ

แต่กำไรในส่วนนี้เป็นกำไรที่ยังไม่เกิดขึ้นจริง [Unrealized Profit] เพราะจะเกิดขึ้นได้เมื่อเราปิดพอร์ต เท่านั้น

2. Cash Flow :

ส่วนนี้จะเป็รส่วนที่เราให้ความสนใจมากกว่าเพราะการลงทุนที่ดีควรมีกำไรเข้ามาต่อเนื่องสม่ำเสมอเพื่อใช้ในการบริหารการลงทุนต่อๆไป

Cash Flow เกิดจาก กระบวนการ Rebalance “ซื้อถูก ขายแพง” จบรอบ กำไรในส่วนนี้จึงเป็นกำไรที่เกิดขึ้นจริง [Realized Profit] จึงสามารถนำไปใช้ได้ทันที

ตัวอย่าง

ขาย เมื่อ มูลค่าสินทรัพย์ เพิ่มสูงขึ้น

ซื้อ เมื่อ มูลค่าสินทรัพย์ ลดต่ำลง

เกิดเป็นกระบวนการที่เรียกว่า “ซื้อถูก ขายแพง”

กำไรเกิดขึ้นเมื่อมีการจับคู่ ซื้อขาย ได้เท่านั้น

หากตลาดขึ้นยาว อาจไม่มี Cash Flow เพราะไม่เกิดการจับคู่ ซื้อขาย

สรุป

หากคุณคือนักเก็งกำไร ต้องการกำไรที่รวดเร็ว เข้าใว ออกไว Rebalancing ไม่ใช่คำตอบสำหรับคุณ

Rebalancing จึงเหมาะกับนักลงทุน ที่มองการลงทุนระยะยาว และต้องการผลตอบแทนแบบ Passive Income มากกว่า

Rebalance ทำกำไรได้เท่าไร กี่วันคืนทุน

ก่อนอื่นทบทวนกันอีกครั้งว่า กำไรที่เกิดจากกระบวนการทำ Rebalancing จะมีอยู่ด้วยกัน 2 ส่วนคือ

Cash Flow — กระแสเงินสด ส่วนเกินทุน เกิดขึ้นได้ตลอดเวลา

Capital Gain— การเติบโตของพอร์ต มาจากราคาสินทรัพย์ที่เพิ่มขึ้น จะเกิดเมื่อเราขายสินทรัพย์ทั้งหมด

ปัจจัยที่ส่งผลต่อความสามารถในการทำกำไร

  1. Asset ที่เลือกลงทุน
  2. ระยะเวลาที่ลงทุน
  3. สภาวะตลาดในแต่ละช่วงเวลา
  4. การปรับ Settings เช่น Ratio ,Trigger ,Fix Value
  5. การปรับ Dynamic ในแต่ละช่วงเวลา

ด้วยปัจจัยที่หลากลายเหล่านี้ จึงทำให้ไม่สามารถตอบได้อย่างชัดเจนและแน่นอนว่าการทำ Rebalance สามารถทำกำไรได้มากน้อยแค่ไหน รวมทั้ง MA5 Bot Rebalance เป็นเพียงเครื่องมือ ช่วยเทรดแบบ “Rebalancing” เท่านั้น กำไร หรือขาดทุน จึงเกิดจากการที่ผู้ใช้งานกำหนดเงื่อนไข และรูปแบบกลยุทธ์

ผลการทดสอบ forward test บนตลาดจริง

EX.01 — Asset : Luna

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Rebalance : Dynamic Rebalance
Start Trade : 10/09/2021

Last Trade : 17/11/2021[69 day]
NAV : 140%
CF : 23%
Transection : 867 Trade

Note :

  1. เคสที่ดีมาก
  2. ปรับค่า ตลอดเวลาโดยคนที่ปรับเป็น
  3. Nav. โตไปพร้อมกับราคาสินทรัพย์
  4. และยังได้ CF ออกมาเรื่อยๆด้วย

EX.02 — Asset : AGLD

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Rebalance : Ratio 50/50
Start Trade : 06/09/2021

Last Trade : 05/12/2021 [90 day]
NAV : 80% (ติดลบ)
CF : 35%
Transection : 1924 Trade

Note :

  1. เคสที่เลือกเหรียญที่แย่ แต่พอร์ทไม่แย่ตาม
  2. มีช่วงที่ราคากลับมาที่เดิม NAV. ยกสูงขึ้น
  3. ในระหว่างที่คนอื่นติดดอย RB ทำให้ลงดอยแล้ว
  4. แม้ราคาจะแย่แต่ยังคงได้ CF ต่อเนื่อง

EX.03 — Asset : ETH

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MA5 Bot บอทเทรดคริปโตเคอเรนซี่อันดับหนึ่งของเมืองไทย เทรดได้ 24 ชั่วโมง

Rebalance : Ratio 50/50
Start Trade : 22/09/2021

Last Trade : 05/12/2021 [73 day]
NAV : 112%
CF : 9%
Transection : 176 Trade

Note :

  1. เลือกเหรียญใหญ่ มั่นคง
  2. โตช้า แต่โตเรื่อยๆ

คำเตือน

ตัวอย่างด้านบนเป็นเพียงผลการทดสอบที่เกิดขึ้นแล้วในอดีต ไม่สามารถใช้ในการการันตีผลกำไรในอนาคตที่จะเกิดขึ้นได้

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